My suggestion that masteries bump down rather than up has a nasty trap in it. Basically, it makes the difference between 1w and 20 too great; the 1w will score a marginal victory or better over 90% of the time, which is a big difference considering that it's only 1 hop up.
I'm stumped; the only avenue left to explore would be some sort of variant 1st mastery bumps up, next one bumps down mess that would be unplayable even if it happened to be statistically viable.
I think I'll stick with the 2nd edition or 1st edition rules;
forewarned is forearmed, after all, and I can simply rule that any
target number of 20 becomes a 1w.
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GAZZA
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