Trying again:
Tie = both win or lose
Win = one loses, other wins
Advantage = win or tie with a crit or your opponent fumbles
Both players have a 1/400 (.25%) chance that they will crit and their
opponent fumbles (lumped into advantage)
Tie 50%
10' Wins 13% with advantage 1% 15' Wins 38% with advantage 3%
On Thu, Nov 5, 2009 at 3:29 PM, Todd Gardiner <todd.gardiner_at_...>wrote:
> Here is my calculation:
> Tie (total) *50%* Tie ('15' advantage)
> 3% Tie ('10' advantage)
> 6% '10' Wins (total)
> *13%* '10' Wins with advantage
> 1% '15' Wins (total)
> *38%* '15' Wins with advantage
> 3%Both players have a 1/400 chance of "double win" Crit vs. Fumble.
>
> *Advantage is a situation in which one player got a 1; or the other player
> got a 20.
>
> Thus '15' wins 25% more of the time than '10', which is exactly what you
> thought would *not *happen.
>
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