Your chance of winning is effected only by your ability level. Consequences of winning, however, are not necessarily the same for different abilities. Defeating someone in a contest with a peashooter may mean driving them off under a hail of painful peas, but inflicting no permanent injury.
But for abilities that are generally agreed as capable of doing lethal damage, they are all pretty much equivalent. There is very little difference between lightning bolts and death spells or flying rocks in a raw contest - they may well differ in play, though, as they get different modifiers in different situations.
Regards David
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