Re: [ImmoderateAfghanistan] Digest Number 487

From: David Weihe <blerg2_at_VAmK512xqtr0KwdOdhzd0jZ75C3d4zS4L6_SL0jEm9cZvNcCm1Q0Ec1rsORsev0dWZa3H>
Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 11:34:23 -0800 (PST)


Mark Galeotti wrote:
> Might we not feel a little uncomfortable if someone
> said 'hey, look at the Teutonic Knights, look at
> Bismarck, look at Hitler -- of _course_ the Germans
> still want to conquer Eastern Europe'?

But why else are they (in their guise of the EU) trying to absorb the ex-Warsaw Pact nations so quickly, regardless of their low economic status (some of which make Greece look like a powerhouse)?

> I would simply counsel against regarding history as
> such a clear and linear predictor of future policy.

But surely some Russian forign policy wonks agree with the principle stated by one British Foreign Minister, that England had no permanent allies or enemies, only permanent interests? And wouldn't cementing their influence over India have been worth a quick and easy raid (which it appears that everyone here agrees was all they were expecting), followed by gradual encorporation of Afghanistan and subversion of Pakistan (then, a longtime US ally)?

BTW, this doesn't imply that they didn't also know of all the problems associated with encorporating the Moslem states taken in the 18th and 19th centuries, just that the Kremlin tended to ignore them when not explicitly dealing with them. Much like Lunarized Solars might ignore the problems with attempted conquest of Sartar, Heortland, and Esrolia, despite problems encountered with several different types of Storm barbarians before and during the Darkness, with the Heortlings during the Councilic and Nysalorian periods (whichever emperors reigns they were), and with the largely Heortling EWF at the end of the LAST age?

> A factor, sure, but not always the deciding one --
> especially when there is no evidence to support such
> a historicist line.

This is History, not Physics. Historical "evidence" is at least 90% interpretation when we are trying to discern intentions of actors who are either dead, or have with good reasons to lie, even to themselves, years after the events.



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