I agree that that's the (very) likely sense of "marcher"; however, there's another, slightly different possible shade to the phrase "Marcher Baron" than the "Warden of the Marches" type connotation (that is, on the border, defending them from the nasties). To wit, the sense of "marcher lord", the recipient of the (notorious) practice of a "speculative" grant of land. ("It's yours, just as soon as you've ejected those various tribes of Gaels/Cornishmen/Praxians from it.")
I confess I haven't followed half the nuances of the competing theories in this thread, but I'm sure that must be grist to _someone's_ mill...
Slainte,
Alex.
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