How so? Being bumped up from BF to F means you lose x2 instead of x3 when your opponent scores S. It cuts the loss of AP by just a third, compared to a bump-up from F to S (loser) which halves the loss. I find the latter bump-up more beneficial than the former, especially considering that Fs happen a lot more often than BFs.
>> However, a rating of 10w against 10 is unlikely to lose an extended contest
>> anyway
>
>True, but a _lot_ more likely than a 18w vs. an 18, by the same
>calculation with a binomial blowup thrown in for good measure.
True as well. It *is* statistically ugly, but then again such contests won't happen frequently enough to be even a small bother. Especially if the GM is aware of the problem.
>And it could be the the party with the target number disadvantage
>had a large AP advantage, in which case it might become a good deal
>less marginal...
If he didn't have some sort of other advantage or modifier, he'd be stupid to go one-on-one at a 20-point disadvantage in the first place.
>my concern would only
>rise if it were likely that players would notice the above sort of
>effects, to the extent of indroduce the dreaded 'game mechanical
>attack' where they make choices influenced by/designed to influence
>such factors... I'm not familiar enough with the system in play
>to know if this is the case (and of course, in any event, YPMV...).
It hasn't come up in my games. And, knowing my players, it won't.
Since only the two of us seem to be involved, perhaps further statistical minutiae should be discussed privately?
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