The reality of a game world will, in a given situation, make some events plausible and all the others implausible. The MGF criteria should be used to select between plausible events, not to select something implausible. If you do this correctly your players will never notice your meddling. If the ex-GM in the crowd gives you a knowing wink, that's their problem - most GMs are illuminates capable of winking and suspending disbelief at the same time, anyhow.
BTW I'm a big fan of weaving Big Secrets into the fabric of the game, and my players seem to respond well to it, too. I just don't think it is necessary to predetermine every secret. If your campaign centers around the liberation of Sartar, then yes, you need to consider the Argrath question. If it doesn't you probably do not need to decide this up front. When the players stray off-course and confront something I haven't predetermined, I just wing it. Often the material I produce on the fly is better than anything I could have prepared. (Maybe this is because I'm in touch with my Inner Trickster, or I have good players feeding me material.)
Pete McAveney
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