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OK, I've been informed that 2nd edition HeroWars will do things slightly differently regarding contest resolution. As I understand it, the "extreme cases" are removed. That means that a roll of 1 is a critical (even if your target number is 1), and a roll of 20 is a fumble (even if your target number is 20).
This changes the whole landscape of 20 vs 1w. 1w is now clearly better. I made a couple of alterations to my program to reflect the new rules, and ran a few comparisons:
Resistance 5w:
1st edition 2nd edition
20 1w 20 1w
NAR 1.25% 0.00% 1.25% 0.25%
CV 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
MJV 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 3.50%
MNV 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 5.50%
MGV 36.75% 37.75% 36.75% 36.75%
TIE 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
MGD 23.00% 22.75% 22.75% 22.75%
MND 26.00% 21.75% 22.75% 21.50%
MJD 1.25% 5.50% 3.50% 5.50%
CD 0.00% 0.50% 1.25% 0.50%
The results here are definitely an improvement over 1st edition, although it could be said that the problem has simply changed slightly. With 2nd edition rules there is no difference between a 19 and a 20 skill, rather than a 20 and a 1w. However, there will likely always be some wrinkle or another.
Resistance 5w2:
1st edition 2nd edition
20 1w 20 1w
NAR 4.75% 0.00% 4.75% 1.25%
CV 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
MJV 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
MNV 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 3.50%
MGV 4.50% 3.50% 4.50% 0.00%
TIE 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
MGD 0.00% 4.50% 0.00% 4.50%
MND 85.75% 64.50% 85.50% 63.25%
MJD 4.75% 26.00% 0.25% 26.00%
CD 0.00% 1.25% 4.75% 1.25%
Here, however, we see that the problem is not really solved. A target number of 20 is slightly worse off under 2nd edition (it can suffer a complete defeat, and in fact is more likely to suffer a complete defeat than a major defeat), but it's still better off than the 1w. Under 2nd edition rules, a 1w has better victory chances than in 1st edition (primarily because the roll of 1 is a critical rather than a mere success, which effectively moves the successes up 1 level), but only a marginally smaller chance of failure. And like in 1st edition, the 1w will fail more spectacularly more often than the 20 skill will, although it won't suffer a complete defeat as often.
One alternative would be to make extra masteries bump your opponent DOWN rather than you UP. If we do this, then against a resistance of 5w2 we get:
20 1w
NAR 0.00% 0.00%
CV 0.00% 0.00%
MJV 0.00% 0.25%
MNV 0.25% 3.50%
MGV 0.00% 1.00%
TIE 0.00% 0.00%
MGD 3.50% 0.00%
MND 67.50% 66.75%
MJD 19.25% 19.00%
CD 9.50% 9.50%
Here the 1w has a slight edge, as we'd expect to see (it's only 1 point higher, after all). This does mean that if you have less masteries than your opponent you can NEVER score a complete victory (since you can't critical), but that doesn't seem like a deal breaker to me.
Just a suggestion.
- --
GAZZA
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