> And the reason why is simple. The edge
> doesn't come into effect unless you WIN. A huge
> edge allows you beat an opponent that you will
> already beat quickly and brutally, and greatly
> increases your chance of beating someone that
> is your relative equal. But it doesn't allow
> you to beat an opponent that has a huge
> advantage over you in ability.
> Try it - 10w3^120 will still lose to
> 10w5, but 10w6 will beat 10w5.
That kind of edge does make a much bigger difference than you might realise. All it takes is for 10w5 to roll a 20 (fumble bumped to success) and and 10w3 to roll a 10 (success) or better. That's a 1 in 40 chance. In an extended contest of 4 rounds, that moves to about a 1 in 5 chance (if my memory of statistics and probability theory is right). With that number of APs, it is likely that the contest will last longer than 4 rounds...
And if the edge is defensive rather than offensive - so that the edge is subtracted from the 10w3's forfeits and transfers to 10w5 BEFORE multipliers - then the odds move hugely in favour of the 10w3 (note that the subtraction cannot reduce a forfeit or transfer below 1).
regards,
Charles
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