> All it takes is for 10w5 to roll a 20 (fumble
> bumped to success) and and 10w3 to roll a 10
> (success) or better. That's a 1 in 40 chance.
> In an extended contest of 4 rounds, that moves
> to about a 1 in 5 chance (if my memory of
> statistics and probability theory is right).
Just spotted an error in my spreadsheet. After 4 rounds, that works out at just a bit less than 1 in 10. After 8 rounds, its a bit better than 7 in 40.
regards,
Charles
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