>So, have I made any errors in my analysis?
Looks sound. Far more effort than most of us could be bothered with but sound :)
>Does it seem like a sensible
>tweak to accomplish my goals? Should I go further, and try to get the payoff
>closer to the auto augment? Any other methods that would suffice?
I would narrate that anything worth rolling for is also worth allowing automatic augments. Including rolled augments. So in practice a rolled augment would be utilising a higher effective ability rating than the automatic augment. This might tweak the payback enough to achieve your goals without changing the rules.
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