Well, I went and hacked a little program to go through and figure out the results. I can post the C code if anyone likes.
Looking closely, I'm not sure I understand the conditions for the cancelled masteries special case. So I just assumed that if neither side has a mastery or they don't have the same number of masteries, then both sides rolling a failure, means marginal defeat for both. Otherwise (i.e. both have masteries and both have the same number of masteries) then low roll gets a marginal victory and tied rolls are no effect. Is this correct? It means the rule only applies if both sides have exactly one mastery and both roll a fumble, which implies a no effect, so why bother? When does the mastery special rule really apply?
Anyway, given the assumption above here are the results I got for 15 vs. 5:
Actor skill = 15, opp skill = 5
4 No Effect
1 Both Complete Defeat
56 Both Marginal Defeat
1 Narrator Call
1 Actor Complete Victory
28 Actor Major Victory
204 Actor Minor Victory
6 Actor Marginal Victory
1 Opp Complete Victory
8 Opp Major Victory
44 Opp Minor Victory
46 Opp Marginal Victory
The actor wins in (1+28+204+6) = 239 cases = 59.75% The opp wins in (1+8+44+46) = 99 cases = 24.75% They tie in (4+1+56+1) = 62 cases = 15.50%
If you change the marginal rolls rule to be high roll wins, then the 15 vs. 5 case changes to:
The actor wins in (1+28+204+46) = 279 cases = 69.75% The opp wins in (1+8+44+6) = 59 cases = 14.75% They tie in (4+1+56+1) = 62 cases = 15.50%
And here is for 5W vs. 5:
Actor skill = 25, opp skill = 5
0 No Effect
0 Both Complete Defeat
14 Both Marginal Defeat
5 Narrator Call
5 Actor Complete Victory
84 Actor Major Victory
217 Actor Minor Victory
0 Actor Marginal Victory
0 Opp Complete Victory
1 Opp Major Victory
18 Opp Minor Victory
56 Opp Marginal Victory
The actor wins in (5+84+217+0) = 306 cases = 76.50% The opp wins in (0+1+18+56) = 75 cases = 18.75% They tie in (0+0+14+5) = 19 cases = 4.75%
If you change the marginal rolls rule to be high roll wins, then the 5W vs. 5 case changes to:
The actor wins in (5+84+217+56) = 362 cases = 90.50% The opp wins in (0+1+18+0) = 19 cases = 4.75% They tie in (0+0+14+5) = 19 cases = 4.75%
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