Re: Re: odds

From: Andrew Moreton <moreton.andrew_at_...>
Date: Thu, 5 Nov 2009 23:17:05 +0000


Wrong
Looking at each possible dice roll result Player A has skill 10, Player B has skill 15. IIRC highest succesful dice roll wins
Player A roll
20 Player B succeeds 15 of 20 both fail 5 in 20 19 Player B succeeds 15 of 20 both fail 5 in 20 18 Player B succeeds 15 of 20 both fail 5 in 20 17 Player B succeeds 15 of 20 both fail 5 in 20 16 Player B succeeds 15 of 20 both fail 5 in 20 15 Player B succeeds 15 of 20 both fail 5 in 20 14 Player B succeeds 15 of 20 both fail 5 in 20 13 Player B succeeds 15 of 20 both fail 5 in 20 12 Player B succeeds 15 of 20 both fail 5 in 20 11 Player B succeeds 15 of 20 both fail 5 in 20 10 Player B wins 5 in 20 Player A wins 14 in 20 Tie 1 in 20 9 Player B Wins 6 in 20 Player A wins 13 in 20 Tie 1 in 20 8 Player B Wins 7 in 20 Player A wins 12 in 20 Tie 1 in 20 7 Player B Wins 8 in 20 Player A wins 11 in 20 Tie 1 in 20 6 Player B Wins 9 in 20 Player A wins 10 in 20 Tie 1 in 20 5 Player B Wins 10 in 20 Player A wins 9 in 20 Tie 1 in 20 4 Player B Wins 11 in 20 Player A wins 8 in 20 Tie 1 in 20 3 Player B Wins 12 in 20 Player A wins 7 in 20 Tie 1 in 20 2 Player B Wins 13 in 20 Player A wins 6 in 20 Tie 1 in 20 1 Player B Wins 14 in 20 Player A wins 5 in 20 Tie 1 in 20 PLayer B wins 245 out of 400
Player A wins 95 out of 400
Tie 10 in 400
Both fail 50 in 400
2009/11/5 soviet1337 <markhumphreys_at_...>

>
>
>
>
> I believe it makes very little difference - about 3%.
>
> There are 400 possible results in d20 vs d20 (20 x 20). Let's say player A
> is rated 15 and player B is rated 10. These are the only possible
> combinations where the difference matters:
>
> A rolls 11, B rolls 11
> A rolls 12, B rolls 11
> A rolls 12, B rolls 12
> A rolls 13, B rolls 11
> A rolls 13, B rolls 12
> A rolls 13, B rolls 13
> A rolls 14, B rolls 11
> A rolls 14, B rolls 12
> A rolls 14, B rolls 13
> A rolls 14, B rolls 14
> A rolls 15, B rolls 11
> A rolls 15, B rolls 12
> A rolls 15, B rolls 13
> A rolls 15, B rolls 14
> A rolls 15, B rolls 15
>
> That's 15 possibilities out of 400, or about 3%. Shocking, I know, but
> that's how the maths works. 97% of the time the difference between 15 and 10
> is irrelevant.
>
> --- In HeroQuest-rules_at_yahoogroups.com <HeroQuest-rules%40yahoogroups.com>,
> "DanWater" <danwater_at_...> wrote:
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > Can anyone tell me the odds of a 15 ability beating a 10 ability. All
> else is equal and no masteries are involved.
> >
> > Thanks in advance.
> >
> > BTW, I'm pretty sure the 15 ability is not 25% better than the 10 ability
> but outside that I'm lost as to how much better the 15 ability is.
> >
>
>
>

-- 
"Any Sufficiently analysed magic is indistinguishable from Science"
Agatha, Girl Genius
http://www.girlgeniusonline.com/comic.php?date=20081205

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