Re: odds

From: bethexton <bethexton_at_...>
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:14:38 -0000

Something to note about the odds in this system is that they are not linear. That is, if you are facing a resistance of 10, moving your ability from 10 to 11 makes very little difference, moving it from 18 to 19 makes more difference. The degree of difference varies depending on whether there is a mastery break between the two numbers or not, but in very rough terms the difference in (the odds of the higher side winning minus the odds of the lower side winning) go up as the square of the difference. (with winning meaning "some level of victory" which is ignoring the importance of level of victory).

There are always 400 possible combination of die rolls in a contest, out of which:
- at 10 versus 10, out of 400 possibilities there are 20 results that are a tie, and 190 where one side or the other wins. (no greater chance of one side winning verus the other).

In other words, going from 10 to 11 only gave a 0.25% bigger delta in winning, while going from 18 to 19 gave a 4.25% greater chance of winning. (Those numbers are all from memory of how I'd worked things out years ago, I don't totally guarantee them....if you want to know the exact equations do a search through this group, I'm pretty sure that I posted them way back when, but I lost my work sheet with a change of computers some time back).

Note that what matters in the above is not the exact numbers, but the difference between them. So it is not really 11 versus ten, it is "one point higher ability level"

--Bryan

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