Re: Alleged non-linearity.

From: Timothy Byrd <timbyrd_at_...>
Date: Tue, 6 Jun 2000 14:02:14 -0700

Urk! I'm confused again, Alex... When I try these two combats as simple contests, here are the results I get:

Actor skill = 17, opp skill = 17W2

  0 No Effect
  0 Both Complete Defeat
  0 Both Marginal Defeat
 19 Narrator Call
  0 Actor Complete Victory
  0 Actor Major Victory
  1 Actor Minor Victory
 16 Actor Marginal Victory
 19 Opp Complete Victory
 39 Opp Major Victory
306 Opp Minor Victory
  0 Opp Marginal Victory

The actor wins in (0+0+1+16) = 17 cases = 4.25% The opp wins in (19+39+306+0) = 364 cases = 91.00% They tie in (0+0+0+19) = 19 cases = 4.75%

Actor skill = 2W, opp skill = 17W2

  0 No Effect
  0 Both Complete Defeat
 17 Both Marginal Defeat
 17 Narrator Call
  0 Actor Complete Victory
  1 Actor Major Victory
  3 Actor Minor Victory
  2 Actor Marginal Victory
 17 Opp Complete Victory
291 Opp Major Victory
 52 Opp Minor Victory
  0 Opp Marginal Victory

The actor wins in (0+1+3+2) = 6 cases = 1.50% The opp wins in (17+291+52+0) = 360 cases = 90.00% They tie in (0+0+17+17) = 34 cases = 8.50%

So against the highly skilled opponent, the 17 wins almost three times as often.

Am I calculating something incorrectly?

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