Re: low combat bids

From: Steven White <fringe_worthy_at_...>
Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2000 04:53:46 -0000

I'm going to argue with you further down.

> > One way to describe the error is that you are yielding the
> > initiative
>
> Not game-mechnically a factor.

Ah... Not if the GM is paying attention. There is no reason he can't give your foes extra reserves. :)

> > another that by increasing the number of combat
> > rounds you are increasing the number of chances your opponent has
> > to make bids that suit his situation.
>
> This is a marginal consideration,but it's true,it can't be entirely
> neglected. In extreme cases, if my opponent is bidding 30AP then my
> bidding 1AP would not be optimal, since I'm better to make somewhat
>bigger bids that reduces his capacity to make 30APish bids that might
> smart a touch, if he gets lucky. There's no motivation for _me_ to
> try and trump his ace by bidding 40AP, though! But it remains true
> that the advantaged party is _clearly_ better to bid lower than the
> disadvantaged party. I haven't analysed this, but I'd guess that a
> decent 'adaptive bidding strategy' would be on the lines of bidding,
> say, a third of your opponents last bid, at most. Best for you is
> if _neither_ of you bids high...

So, what you're saying is that if you're winning, and your foe decides to help you win, then you should both bid low. Right.

I waste him with a HeroPoint!

> > (3) If I'm a weaponthane, I'm a privileged member of my
> > community. I earn that privilege by being willing to put
> > my life on the line to defend it.
>
> That's correct. But how does that imply a obligation to follow
> poor tactics, increasing your chances of being killed and thus
> putting your community at risk, and the numerous cows we spent on
> you to waste?

Winning a fight using bad technique can be a political nightmare. Ask any clan whose player heros defeated their enemy clan by poisoning their well, then slaughtering them while sick. Why did all those other clans come charging in and put the entire lot of us to the sword? You're being a bad GM! :)

That or that Dork Tower: I waste him with a Crossbow. Good for victory, bad for consquerences/later results.

> > (4) It's been said that there are two requirements to be a good
> > Humakti. You must be prepared to kill, and you must be prepared
> > to die. I'm not sure a '3 AP all the time' merchant is properly
> > following his god.
>
> As above. I don't think Humakt is necessarily the impatient type.
> ("Kid, we've _all_ got it coming to us.")

In Orlanth's society the brave are dead or rewarded. You get rewarded enough, you might become good enough to not die. While the coward limps on until....

Actually, they both die, the Brave fellow just gets to die against far more glorious and powerful foes.

> > In summary, I believe that there are very good reasons for
> > Orlanthi culture to encourage aggression among its warriors, and
> > players may be wise to have their characters act accordingly.
>
> I agree. And what I'm saying is that the HW rules do very little,
> if anything,to reflect this, and a fair bit to discourage it.Given
> that a) numerous groups have perceived this, b) they're correct,
> in so far as the mechanics are concerned, then I think it's
> sensible to attempt to address this, rather than hoping the problem
> will go away.

Also, I think there is a big point you're forgetting. If you're going up against a pack of enemies.... You and your foe slowly wear each other down. But you're better, so he dies first. But... He's going to wear you down as well, unless you're so bloody good, that on average, you get a transfer. So when you go help your friend, you're at low AP.

Now, if you bid high, whack him good, and maybe spent a HP to either break a loss, or make a giant transfer, then you'll be at very high AP when you go help your friend. Thus, you're can be better by not averaging down the results.

And if you're so good you averaging a transfer to you, why are you you being so desperately cautious?

For example, you both have 100 AP, and the expected AP loss for bidding 1 AP is .50 for your enemy and .25 for you. They don't sum to 0, and sum negative, because you tend to get a forfeit instead of a transfer, so this is not a zero sum game. If you do 100 rounds of 1 ap bids, your foe will be at 50 ap, and you'll be at 75, and finally you'll win around round 200, with 50 ap left. Now if you took big gambles, and maybe spent a hero point or two _if_ it was needed, you might be down in HP, but your action points may be anywhere from 1..200, and likely greater then 50. This may let you handle the next opponent much easier.

So by taking a chance, you can do better then the expected odds. Especially if you can 'cheat' by using HP if you're unlucky. Or if you want to be lucky.

So, what you're doing with small AP bids is giving up your ability to win big in order to prevent yourself from losing big. Given that you have HeroPoints that let you shift the odds, trying to win big, and using heropoints to ensure you do, may let you you come out of the fight better then you came in. With a possible lost HP, or two.

Also, under a game view, instead of a pure math game... playing your contest like this may let you slowly wear away that trollkin horde, but if that lets those great trolls over there finish off the rest of your fyrd, and lets them join the remains of the trollkin horde in attacking you.... You might get scragged. Badly.

Anyways, I'm not sure there is a massive difference doing 3ap bids and 10ap bids. There is a bit more varience in the results, but the odds are pretty well the same. So it's not a great reward. And given Heropoints, bidding big is rewarded. As well, you need to bid higher in order to get great defeats for your foe.

The final issue, is that heros tend to beat on more skilled opponents, which means you want to bid big in order to widen the varience, so that you might get lucky and take down the foe despite his greater skill. That and bludgeonning him to death with your HP.

Oh ya, and this is a heroic game, you get rewarded for doing heroic things. If only through the amusement of seeing heroic wins and disasters.

As well, why don't you give those Weaponthanes a hero point or two. Then big bids make a lot of sense, since scragging someone fast means you can gang up on someone else fast as well.

Steven White

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