If the narrator feels the need to role a die to add some randomness, by all means do so, but it seems to me that in so many activities fumbles are pretty easy just to story tell. In general, the punishment should both fit the crime, errr, situation, and be appropriate to the story.
Assume the shepherding example, and that there is actually a need to roll. For examples: the character is trying to round up the sheep of an injured shepherd, and is rolling against a default 6, or it is part of a contest, or it is part of a heroquest.
In the first example, what the character attempts to herd the sheep, they could easily spook and all run off. Perhaps he/she manages to run down and catch one or two, but the herd is gone/scattered, and it is a whole other issue who is going to try and bring them back. The character was trying to do a kindness, and instead made the situation worse.
In the example of a contest, you are trying to both show competence and show off. So not only do you not get the sheep to cooperate, but you also make a fool of yourself.
On a heroquest, well, you do have a hero point to spare, don't you? You don't, oh dear....<evil narrator chuckle>
In other words, the higher the stakes, the higher the cost of fumbling.
At least, that is how I've observed things usually happening in life.
--Bryan
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