Re: Herding Sheep

From: Tim Ellis <tim_at_...>
Date: Thu, 07 Sep 2000 09:21:48 -0000

>>Finally the Voirof Devotee Master shepherd with 8W2 never looses
>>sheep permanently (under these conditions) - in fact it is only 1
>>time in 400 he fails to bring them all home. 29% of the time he
>>has his sheep home early.
> > Um, its a bit better than that, afterall. I have a bump up.

Two bumps, in fact, but still only a 29% chance of major or complete victory, unless I have completly failed to understand the rules (actually its 28.75%, but I rounded up)

This works as follows. (8W2 v 14)

Complete Victory - I Crit, you fumble.
I crit on a 1, and a 2-8 (success bumped to crit) and 9-19 (fail bumped X2 to Crit) (total 95% of the time) - You fumble on a 20 (5% of the time) 95% x 5% = 4.75%

Major victory, I Crit you fail
I crit 95% (as above)- you fail on a 15-19 (25%) 95% x 25% = 23.75%

Major Victory I succeed & you fumble
I succeed on a 20 (fumble bumped x2 to Success), you fumble on a 20 - 5% x 5% = 0.25%

4.75 + 23.75 + .25 = 28.75

This actually means that if you have a 2W advantage, you are better off if you can find a way to reduce your opponents score rather than increasing your own - Your chances of Criticalling and succeeding will remain unchanged whether you have 2W2 or 19W2, wheras your opponent will fail more if his skill is 12 rather than 17...