2 Characters are caught outside on this winters night and are asked to make a roll to avoid the worst effects of the weather. Initially lets assume neither of them have thought to put any useful ability on their character sheet (maybe for fear that "Hardy" will be treated as a "broad ability" that they will be penalised for) so giving them a roll of 6 (for an unlisted ability). This leaves them with about a 70% chance of failing the roll, with the most likely result being a minor defeat (at nearly 60% of the time).
That's not necessarily unreasonable (depending on just how cold you
consider 19 to be of course) 0.25% of Complete Defeat (Die of
Hypothermia), nearly 8% Major defeat (Develop Hypothermia, suffer
Frostbite, all abilities at -50%) ~60% Minor Defeat (suffer the
effects of the cold -1 to all abilities) and 2.5% Marginal defeat
(Uncomfortable, but no lasting effects)
What if they have magic to help? The first character is Barlan, a
Devotee of Hevren the Chaser (ST p188) who has a "Stay Warm" feat as
part of his Chasing affinity (Hevren must have often chased his
prey through the cold of the great darkness I presume). We'll assume
he is a starting character with a 17 in this affinity. He uses the
afinity in place of the ability, and immediately sees the benefit -
although he still has the .25% of dieing of hypothermia he will only
be affected just under 20% of the time (and uncomfortable
(marginal defeat) another 30%)
The other Character - Devandar is a sorceror disciple of Makabaeus
(HGW:RiG p81) He is also a starting character but has the Tome of
Dispair as his 1W skill, and chooses to use the Warm Body spell to
resist the cold - His mastery advantage means he can't suffer a
complete defeat and only stands an 9.25% chance of taking any sort of
penalty.
This doesn't show the advantage of Sorcery, however, merely the advantage of having a mastery level advantage over your opponent!
The two benefits a sorceror has is when casting magic at a distance - hardly an issue here (although if they came across a third body in the wilderness it might), or when extending the duration. The problem is defining duration for a narrative game - there are no "Turns", "Melee Rounds" or "Strike Ranks" to count down. Magic normally lasts for "The Current Contest", but if the current contest is "See if you survive the night without addequate shelter" then it's already lasting "all night". (The other issue is one of "cost" - if it costs "Magic Points" to cast magic then it can be useful to extend the duration so that the effect is in place after the "magic Points" have regenerated for use elsewhere - when there is no cost, there is less reason to do so)
To illustrate the difference, however, the narrator is feeling particularly cruel and announces that a roll must be made each hour through the night unless the magic is suitably extended.
For a sorceror to extend a spell by up to 8 hours is a resistance of 5
(HW:RiG p232) - instead of a 19, he is now rolling against a 4w
(Complete defeat 0.25%, Major Defeat 5.25 and Minor defeat 17.5)
For a Theist, on the other hand it is a resistance of +10 which takes the Winter up to 9w - it now has a level of mastery on out poor Yinkini, giving him a 2.25% chance of not making it through the night, and just over 50% of taking some sort of penalty (41.25% of Minor defeat). If barlan plans to do anything other than keep warm tonight he's likely to be doing so at a penalty for the cold!
It definitely shows that no one should be out in the depths of a Dragon Pass 5w4 winter without at least a couple of Masteries worth of staying warm though!
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