At the point where, coincidently in the "real world", the depth of the water exceeds the draft of the boat. That is when Water beats Earth. It depends on the boat. And on the Season, the phase of the moon, how meticulous the acolyte is, any Earth or Water worshippers in the neighborhood who are acting for or against floating the boat, and, I'm sure, many other factors that I haven't foreseen.
RR
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