I think that most future shamans come to light during each culture's initiation. This can anticipated or very, very unexpected. The child that talks to bushes at age 4 is probably going to be a shaman (or crazy, but what's the difference?). But some seemingly normal ones have their other halves awakened by the experience of initiation. Most people can only follow a single path (use an appropriate metaphor here) through initiation; I think that an awakening shaman sees too many paths, so inevitably follows the "wrong" one; eventually, after seeing many strange and terrifying things, this path leads to the Horned Man or whoever heads the shamanic practice.
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