RE: Re: Why the Lunars *will* win

From: Jens Haeusser <jens.haeusser_at_...>
Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 08:32:13 -0700

They interviewed the author on Quirks and Quarks yesterday (Canada's weekly science radio show on the CBC). They analyzed 441 bouts, with red winning 242 bouts, or 55%. This should be an adequate sample size showing statistical significance. More interestingly, when they looked at close rounds between athletes of equal abilities which were decided on points, 62% were won by red-garbed competitors. You can read the full paper at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v435/n7040/full/435293a.html , including a spreadsheet of all of the results.

Now back to your regularly scheduled HeroQuest- how about the definition of common magic and the role of misapplied worship amongst the scattered duck tribes of Prax?

Jens

-----Original Message-----
On Behalf Of Sam Elliot
Sent: May 22, 2005 5:52 AM
To: HeroQuest-RPG_at_yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: Why the Lunars *will* win

• In HeroQuest-RPG_at_yahoogroups.com, "Mike Holmes" <mike_c_holmes_at_y...> wrote:
  > If you want to really get into it, reading the article as a
  professional statistician, I was shocked by what seem to have been their methods. The sample groups are so small, and seem to have no control groups that the statement would seem to be entirely horsefeathers. Of course, that might merely be poor reporting of the study, but there's plenty of room for doubt, without bringing up the Cinci Reds.

Mike, as a professional statistician you should have downloaded the original data from Nature's website and analysed it yourself before commenting ;-)

40 to 180-odd red v. blue contests in four sports looks pretty good to me, without getting serious about it or having access to the full paper from home. That's not to say that proper stats is any criterion for publication by Nature - e.g. their organic apples stuff a couple of years ago where the analysis was very dodgy indeed.

Any road, important thing is that Arsenal won the toss to play in their home strip yesterday (i.e. in red v. Man Ure in black in the FA Cup Final) and in the end won on penalties. Might have been down to the Man Ure player who fluffed the penalty being a ginger, mind, but then the Man Ure coach has a red face, so it's swings and roundabouts.

OT or what?
Sam.  

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