Re: [ImmoderateHeroQuest] Re: [ImmoderateAfghanistan] Digest Number 487

From: Peter Metcalfe <metcalph_at_ROMvlp5g3BKxlpzNYH-RemP1715c34gAnaPIlCwQhB4MWT9i0-Sut7Z3AHPqhQZvEja>
Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 10:38:37 +1300


At 11:34 AM 1/23/2006 -0800, you wrote:

>But why else are they (in their guise of the EU) trying to absorb the
>ex-Warsaw Pact nations so quickly, regardless of their low economic
>status (some of which make Greece look like a powerhouse)?

I should point out that most of the recent eastern european countries being added weren't conquered and actually fought with Hitler against the Russians during the second world war.

Furthermore the effects of this expansion will allow the people of eastern european countries to actually settle in the western countries, which is rather contrary to the Lebensraum idea that Mark was alluding to.

> > I would simply counsel against regarding history as
> > such a clear and linear predictor of future policy.
>
>But surely some Russian forign policy wonks agree with the principle
>stated by one British Foreign Minister, that England had no permanent
>allies or enemies, only permanent interests?

A type of reasoning that is on the slippery road to Conspiracy Theory.

> And wouldn't cementing
>their influence over India have been worth a quick and easy raid (which
>it appears that everyone here agrees was all they were expecting),
>followed by gradual encorporation of Afghanistan and subversion of
>Pakistan (then, a longtime US ally)?

Except that the Soviet Papers have been read and cementing influence over India was not their concern.

>This is History, not Physics. Historical "evidence" is at least 90%
>interpretation when we are trying to discern intentions of actors who
>are either dead, or have with good reasons to lie, even to themselves,
>years after the events.

But when you start ignoring what has actually been pointed out in terms of documentary evidence without good reason (They "lie [...] to themselves"? What are these good reasons they lie to themselves?), then you leave the bounds of history and enter historical fiction.

--Peter Metcalfe            

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