In 2014, or by 2014? If the latter:
Cuba 80% chance, after Castro dies and civil war breaks out, under the notion of suppressing a civil war that brings loads of refugees to the Florida coasts. Bonus: we get to destroy the Venezuelan navy and air force, who launch ridiculous attacks.
Somalia and Pakistan (if we're not there already in both) are about 75%
Somewhere in North Africa is at 40% -- wherever the Islamic fundamentalists successfully stage a revolution.
Fiji is at about 20%. We provide support to the Ozzies, who finally get sick of coup - countercoup and get a UN resolution.
North Korea is about 10%, as each side's posturing result in a tragedy of errors like the ones that led to WW1, border raids escalate, and North Korea starts shelling Seoul. Whether is goes nuclear depends on timing of the war compared to North Korea's bomb development. We win the war quickly, but South Korea wishes we hadn't as refugees flood it. 10% chance (of the 10%) that China threatens to intervene or to counter-invade Taiwan, putting the whole war on ice. 10% chance (of the 10%) we do a deal where China invades North Korea and replaces its government.
Iran is about 5%, but we probably would not send ground troops because of the residual radiation left over from our retaliatory nuclear strike very shortly after theirs on Israel.
Russia is about 5%, in the case of a horrible civil war breaking out there, where we send in troops to protect their missile sites. We try to keep from taking sides, so end up handing the nukes back to someone worse than Putin.
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