I agree with most everything you wrote. Here's my new improved interpretation of the big-picture Lunar view:
Since at least the 1560s, there has been planning on building a revolutionary experimental Temple of the Reaching Moon outside of the realm of Muharazarm and deep in the lands of the Rebel Gods. It has been known for some time (how I don't know) that in the foothills of the Stormwalk mountains there is a site of tremendous unquantifiable energy - possibly raw Essence. The planners first proved this plan would work to many priests and bureaucrats; then to high priests and administrators; and finally to the Emperor himself, who in 1580 ordered the plan funded and implemented. The plan has been stalled more often by politics than by enemy action, but never stopped. The plan will ultimately heal Orlanth and bring him into the Lunar fold.
However, a condition precedent to beginning construction is that Orlanth must be killed. This has been a problem. For whatever reason, this condition was not met with the fall of Boldhome (I think it is because Humakt, not Orlanth, was present).
Fazzur invades Heortland in 1619. The Volsaxi are pushed into Whitewall, heavy DH troops are detached under Jorkandros the Blinder to take Whitewall and Fazzur continues on to Karse and Heortland. Whitewall is viewed as a nuisance to the rear of the main Lunar Army which must be reduced - important and difficult for the Bat to be brought to bear, but not of great signficance.
To everyone's shock, Broyan kills the Bat and beats off the Lunar assault. In doing this, Broyan somehow manages to identify the defense Whitewall with the fate of Orlanth, which gives him the power to defeat the Bat. Tatius the Bright, Dean of the Lunar College of Field Magic, realizes this is the opportunity to kill Orlanth (whatever that means - I doubt Tatius thought it would bring on the Fimbulwinter or still the air). Tatius takes over command of the siege, brings in mythically correct troops and takes actions that increase the identification of Whitewall with Orlanth - building the Heortlings up so that the fall is all the more mythically significant.
At some point - probably in late 1620 or early 1621 - Broyan figures out that he has walked right into a trap. He comes to the conclusion that Whitewall is ultimately doomed. So he escalates - Orlanth will be sent to the Underworld and the Great Darkness brought on.
I think that this is still compatible with many other Lunar plots involving Orlanth. Heal him, kill him, enslave him, chain him, free him - they are all right. But they all require the New Temple of the Reaching Moon to come to fruition.
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