Depends what you mean by "significant", I suppose. Presumably, the chance of failure is not zero, but I really wouldn't expect it to be very high - maybe less than 5%. Otherwise, you'd expect that we really would have heard more about it, if only in the context of regular, non-heroic clan members. It's a life-changing event, sure - and not just in its social consequences - but, at least IMG, I wouldn't expect it to be one with a high failure rate.
-- Trotsky Gamer and Skeptic ------------------------------------------------------ Trotsky's RPG website: http://www.ttrotsky.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/ Not a Dead Communist: http://jrevell.blogspot.com/
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