ZPG

From: Nick Brooke <nick_at_uG_P8XnHC3rPbk9uuQvwCXyiPvcp9m0ZelsW3q_LkkaehHanlsXlInkAkczcSZFE08oqWx7>
Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 00:39:08 +0100

I guess Greg's ZPG assumption went like this: "husband, wife plus two kids = replacement-level population."

But this seductively simple model ignores grandpa, of course. If you have a husband, wife and grandpa, plus THREE kids, then the husband & wife have produced *more* than a replacement population.

It's a *very* easy mistake to make.

> We should mention the 50% figure (and include teenagers/'initiands' in
> the children category)

You'll have to define "initiand" very carefully. I don't think the New Adults defined in "Thunder Rebels" (young Heortlings, partially initiated and undergoing their 2-3 year initiatory training) are still counted as "children" -- the name alone suggests otherwise!

Rather than "mention the 50% figure", I'd set out what Greg intended -- explain that there's little population growth, and the average married couple have around two children.

BTW, I *like* Michael's suggestion that we distinguish carefully between unmarried and married adults -- after all, unmarried women are our kin, while married women came from some other stead. You won't, of course, be able to do this on age alone (though it may help).

Cheers, Nick