Bryan wrote:
> However what is interesting, when you compare it to the non-mastery
> gap case is that it is not constant for the difference between the
> abilities. This is to say that applying the same modifier to both
> contestants could actually change their odds of winning!
I thought that was quite obvious, but that's where masteries come in.
> To provide a more direct comparison, for an 18 point ability gap,
> here are the percentage differences in the chance of winning:
> � 19 versus 2: 81% (90.5% vs 9.5%)
> � 2W versus 4: 57% (78.5% vs 21.5%)
> � 9W versus 11: 32.5% (66.25% vs 33.75%)
> � 17W versus 19: 64.5% (82.25% vs 17.75%)
>
> Clearly what this says is that it is not adequate to merely know the
> gap between skills, you have to have some idea of the actual skill
> values, as it can make a substantial difference in the odds of
> winning. `
How would you factor in the effects of 'bumping', and the whole scale of success levels (marginal, minor, major). The 9W<->11 "loss" may have the same narrative effect as the 19<->2 "win".
Henk
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