Agreed - it's one of the classics where more explanation is needed.
There's also the question of what happens if the target doesn't even know they're being shot at. Or "knows" they're well out of range, which comes to much the same thing - they have no useful ability to avoid the incoming missiles. (Or do they? What would you allow, and with what modifiers?)
Might I also suggest that in this as in all other cases, you avoid assuming that either extended or simple contests are being used? I've seen rather too many "explanations" that make assumptions one way or the other, and that makes them less than helpful when the assumption isn't true.
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