Re: Tricky situations List

From: Mandacaru <samclau_at_...>
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2007 22:11:53 -0000


"Roderick and Ellen Robertson" <rjremr_at_...> wrote: [Re. chance of getting a Complete defeat]
> In a simple contest, 1 in 400 when both people have the same
number of masteries. (1 in 20 of rolling a Fumble, 1 in 20 of rolling a Critical = 1 in 400 of both a Fumble and a Critical being rolled).

Okay, thanks for that Rory.
Beside the extended contests and so on, this does surprise me an awful lot. Should have done the maths myself earlier, no?

It means that if I'm a rank amateur and I decide I loathe my counterpart rank amateur so much I want to rip him to tiny shreds with my big nasty sharp metal object, I've a negligible chance of doing so.

Equally, if I'm an utter professional and want to destroy my (equivalently powerful) nemesis, I 'm unlikely to do so, permanently.

The accepted standard for a statistical likelihood of an experimental result being accepted as sufficiently "significant" to be publishable as such is 1 in 20. Big difference.

And those chances above just mean that any Charlie can do whatever he wants (in a social contest or whatever) without consequences above a 10% penalty being a likely outcome. That has to strain credibility, shirley? It affects how people behave, that does.

I need to point out now, of course, that this 1 in 400 (I think that's a two-tailed thing, so a 1 in 200 for "my" character?) is in order to get a "dying". Not a "dead, roll up a new character".

So, even more extreme with that safety catch.

I've exercised Rory's patience a lot, and I'm grateful, Rory, for your tolerance, but I have to say I think this is a glitch.

I think, too that is is a big glitch which affects how people experience the game. I think those "dying" results are great. But they should happen more often, say at least twenty percent of the time in an evenly matched contest.

Sam.

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