> But do you as a player really think like that?
David is describing the pattern that set in during two multi-year games in his Seattle Farmers group, one of which he narrated. In general, the more risk-averse players always asked for Extended Contests, for the reasons he outlines.
I'd add: The chances of a "single bad roll" are relatively high when HeroQuest opponents are relatively evenly matched. In a simple contest, you need a four point advantage in the target number to have a 50% chance of victory (and your opponent will still have a 46% chance). You need a 10 point advantage to have a 60% chance.
The player group summarized the situation as "nothing less than a mastery matters". Hero Point bumps are thus very important -- superior skills less than a mastery are not enough to give a risk-averse player a reasonable chance of victory, but several well-placed bumps will.
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