Rob:
> > But do you as a player really think like that?
>
> David is describing the pattern that set in during two multi-year
> games in his Seattle Farmers group, one of which he narrated. In
> general, the more risk-averse players always asked for Extended
> Contests, for the reasons he outlines.
>
> I'd add: The chances of a "single bad roll" are relatively high when
> HeroQuest opponents are relatively evenly matched. In a simple
> contest, you need a four point advantage in the target number to have
> a 50% chance of victory (and your opponent will still have a 46%
> chance). You need a 10 point advantage to have a 60% chance.
>
> The player group summarized the situation as "nothing less than a
> mastery matters". Hero Point bumps are thus very important -- superior
> skills less than a mastery are not enough to give a risk-averse player
> a reasonable chance of victory, but several well-placed bumps will.
Fair enough. I guess I'm just a bit surprised that people are so keen not to
lose contests; that they are so risk-averse and that they bothered to work
those odds out rather than worrying more about whether the game will get
bogged down and so on (not that they necessarily did the latetr, just
saying).
But then, I've not had that sort of long-running FTF game myself, so...
Sam.