I've just uploaded the file again. This time I've added a table and chart that go to exactly what you were asking for Mike. Look at the "Mod To Success" Chart and see the wonderful graphic depiction of the cyclical nature of how much has to be subtracted or added to obtain the desired levels of probability for success. Watch the lines dance and leap in mathematical joy.
This gives you the data and pictures to back up other people's statements here that there is no simple way to calculate a resistance that will give X% desired probability of success given Y player skill.
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