I'm going to stick my neck out here and say I think the scenario results are Rebel propaganda. The whole Sartar Rising series is written from the point of view of a bunch of Rebel PCs. It fits that story for the book to end in a clear success for those PCs. This is also the way that the PCs will think - a clan will followed the way of Orlanth will benefit from our success, a clan which let the traditions slip will get by and a clan that converted to the Lunar way will suffer.
Objectively it won't be anything like this clear simply because every clan has some Lunar converts, some Rebels and a lot of people who didn't commit one way or the other. Further complicating the issue is Lunar support - when the winter starts hurting the Seven Mothers cult is going to be working to minimise its effects on their allies.
So how is this reconciled?
Clans which suffer badly will find Lunar traitors to blame and
outlaw. Clans which do well will explain that they really
supported the rebellion all along but couldn't get rid of
Lunar appointed leaders. And the messy business of Orlanthi
power politics will continue much as it always has with leaders
like Broyan and Kallyr trying to hold a workable alliance
together.
So what happens to the Black Oaks? Whatever you want. If you want a recurrent enemy to disappear from the story then the clan collapses and survivors flee to the Empire. Or they fight a last stand against your PC heros. Perhaps your clan accepts their women and children as thralls? If you want to keep the recurrent enemy then they survive fairly well and switch sides claiming to have supported the rebellion all along. Not that your PCs are going to trust those damn turncoats....
-- Donald Oddy http://www.grove.demon.co.uk/
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