>Depends what you mean by "significant", I suppose. Presumably, the
>chance of failure is not zero, but I really wouldn't expect it to be
>very high - maybe less than 5%. Otherwise, you'd expect that we really
>would have heard more about it, if only in the context of regular,
>non-heroic clan members. It's a life-changing event, sure - and not
>just in its social consequences - but, at least IMG, I wouldn't expect
>it to be one with a high failure rate.
Certainly the chance of a catastrophic failure should be less than 5%, probably 1 or 2% which would still mean the typical clan had a number of people disabled at initiation and everyone would know of someone who had died.
I would put the chance of a minor failure rather higher. We know "all" men initiate to Orlanth so there's going to be a social expectations to do so - "what makes you think you're so special?" So unsuited candidates will try and fail. Arrogance is encouraged among male Heortlings so some will try before they are ready, and fail. The failure rate is probably lower among women because they are taught to get it right. Overall I'd expect to see about a 10% minor failure rate.
In the RW we ignore 30%+ initiation failures (exams at 16) so lack of discussion doesn't mean it doesn't happen.
-- Donald Oddy http://www.grove.demon.co.uk/
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