Re: Level of Success and Target Numbers

From: jamesjhawkins <James.Hawkins_at_...>
Date: Mon, 17 Mar 2003 20:45:22 -0000

"more often than not" is right:

Considering the 400 possible results (20 x 20) Mr 17 wins in 309, giving him about a 77% chance of victory. I'd say that's fair for an advantage of 15, which is less than a mastery after all.

(OK, 2 is not a possible target number, but the chance is about the same at 2w vs 17w. Not identical because of mastery special case.)

I've just uploaded a table to the files area depicting this analysis:

[A while ago there was a discussion in similar vein, but about what happens around the mastery cross over points, like are you better off at 1w or 20. I wrote a proggy to produce rough and ready tables in HTML format. If anbody's interested, I can do some more.]



Powered by hypermail