Re: Level of Success and Target Numbers

From: jamesjhawkins <James.Hawkins_at_...>
Date: Mon, 17 Mar 2003 20:45:22 -0000

> Given: two characters, one with a skill of 17 and the other
> with a skill of 2. Were the first character to roll a 15 (success),
> and the 2nd character to roll a 2 (success) under the current Hero
> Wars rules, the 2nd character would always win the contest, even
> though that character's skill level is considerably lower
> Granted, he would fail more often that not, but in the event
> of a success, the 2nd character would always win unless the
> first rolled a 2 or 1.

"more often than not" is right:

Considering the 400 possible results (20 x 20) Mr 17 wins in 309, giving him about a 77% chance of victory. I'd say that's fair for an advantage of 15, which is less than a mastery after all.

(OK, 2 is not a possible target number, but the chance is about the same at 2w vs 17w. Not identical because of mastery special case.)

I've just uploaded a table to the files area depicting this analysis: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/hw-rules/files/sc_2_17.htm

[A while ago there was a discussion in similar vein, but about what happens around the mastery cross over points, like are you better off at 1w or 20. I wrote a proggy to produce rough and ready tables in HTML format. If anbody's interested, I can do some more.]

Cheers,

sjjh