"more often than not" is right:
Considering the 400 possible results (20 x 20) Mr 17 wins in 309, giving him about a 77% chance of victory. I'd say that's fair for an advantage of 15, which is less than a mastery after all.
(OK, 2 is not a possible target number, but the chance is about the same at 2w vs 17w. Not identical because of mastery special case.)
I've just uploaded a table to the files area depicting this analysis: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/hw-rules/files/sc_2_17.htm
[A while ago there was a discussion in similar vein, but about what happens around the mastery cross over points, like are you better off at 1w or 20. I wrote a proggy to produce rough and ready tables in HTML format. If anbody's interested, I can do some more.]
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