Re: Re: odds

From: Todd Gardiner <todd.gardiner_at_...>
Date: Thu, 5 Nov 2009 15:29:17 -0800

Here is my calculation:
Tie (total) *50%* Tie ('15' advantage)
3% Tie ('10' advantage)

6% '10' Wins (total)


*13%* '10' Wins with advantage

1% '15' Wins (total)

*38%* '15' Wins with advantage

3%Both players have a 1/400 chance of "double win" Crit vs. Fumble.

*Advantage is a situation in which one player got a 1; or the other player
got a 20.

Thus '15' wins 25% more of the time than '10', which is exactly what you thought would *not *happen.