Re: Re: odds

From: L C <lightcastle_at_...>
Date: Sat, 7 Nov 2009 13:20:17 -0500


Oh wait, there are 15 tying rolls, aren't there? (1-10 and 16-20) for 3.75% and the totals are the same because my brain decided it doesn't like me today.

*sigh*

Just ignore all that part where I am stupid. :)

LC

On Sat, Nov 7, 2009 at 1:16 PM, L C <lightcastle_at_...> wrote:

> Also,
> this is actually a pretty major difference if you switch high-roll for
> low-roll.
>
> Wins 51.3%, Loses: 45.0%
> Wins 67.5%, Loses: 28.8%
>
> (Why aren't the totals the same, btw? I am assuming they are both not
> including the 10 possible tie rolls, so shouldn't that be the same 2.5%
> missing?)
>
> Incidentally, I recall once hearing someone mention that they think the
> fact the game throws up mostly marginal and minor victories is a design
> feature, and that there was a specific game logic to it. I don't know if
> this is true, but it seems like a good place to mention that. I do think the
> game weights toward inconclusive victories - there are even parts of the
> rulebook that point ou the more you roll, the more that flattens out, which
> is sometimes unhelpful. IF this is a design decision, would someone involved
> in the design care to discuss the logic behind it? It might help satisfy
> Dan. (And I would be curious.)
>
> On Sat, Nov 7, 2009 at 12:45 PM, Nikodemus Siivola <
> nikodemus_at_...> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> 2009/11/7 DanWater <danwater_at_... <danwater%40yahoo.com>>:
>> > " the number before the mastery notation might as well disappear."
>> >
>> > This is why it's a problem. With only masteries there isn't enough
>> distinction between
>> > characters or even seperate abilities for one character. As a system
>> that puts character
>> > front and center anything that dilutes the differences between
>> characters or abilities
>> > within a character runs counter to the systems purpose.
>>
>> I thought so, till I ran the numbers taking levels of success into
>> account -- which also led me to embrace the "high roll wins marginals"
>> optional rule.
>>
>> This is the standard rule, with a relative histogram of result
>> distribution. Even here a minor and major victories are twice as
>> likely for the better score.
>>
>> Ability: 15, Resistance: 10, Tie-breaker: low-roll-wins
>> Complete Victory: *
>> Major Victory: ************
>> Minor Victory:
>> **********************************************************************
>> Marginal Victory: *********************
>> Tie: ********
>> Marginal Defeat: ******************************************************
>> Minor Defeat: ******************************
>> Major Defeat: *******
>> Compleat Defeat: *
>> Wins 51.3%, Loses: 45.0%
>>
>> What is the effect of high-roll-wins over low-roll-wins? Glad you
>> asked! It swaps the marginals around:
>>
>> Ability: 15, Resistance: 10, Tie-breaker: high-roll-wins
>> Complete Victory: *
>> Major Victory: ************
>> Minor Victory:
>> **********************************************************************
>> Marginal Victory: ******************************************************
>> Tie: ********
>> Marginal Defeat: *********************
>> Minor Defeat: ******************************
>> Major Defeat: *******
>> Compleat Defeat: *
>> Wins 67.5%, Loses: 28.8%
>>
>> I prefer this, but the low-roll-wins isn't too shabby either.
>>
>> Cheers,
>>
>> -- Nikodemus
>>
>>
>
>

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