Re: Re: odds

From: L C <lightcastle_at_...>
Date: Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:37:56 -0500

  bethexton wrote:

>
>
> Ummm, it does change things if you go over a mastery break (the math 
> is different), but 19 vs 14 and 16 vs 11 are both a difference of 5, 
> so have the same odds. In other words, it does NOT generally matter if 
> you add to the player or penalize the opponent.
>

Sorry, I was unclear. Total odds of victory don't change until you hit a mastery break. Odds of TYPE of victory do. (Unless the probability calculators stored up on the group files section are lying to me.)

19 v 14
*Complete Victory* 1 0.25%
*Major Victory* 23 5.75%
*Minor Victory* 103 25.75%
*Marginal Victory* 78 19.50%
*Tie* 15 3.75%
*Marginal Defeat* 143 35.75%
*Minor Defeat* 23 5.75%
*Major Defeat* 13 3.25%
*Complete Defeat* 1 0.25%

16 v 11
*Complete Victory* 1 0.25%
*Major Victory* 23 5.75%
*Minor Victory* 133 33.25%
*Marginal Victory* 48 12.00%
*Tie* 15 3.75%
*Marginal Defeat* 113 28.25%
*Minor Defeat* 53 13.25%
*Major Defeat* 13 3.25%
*Complete Defeat* 1 0.25%

>
> But I generally agree that things should be applied to the player's 
> ability, because things should be done from their point of view.
>

Yes.