I think that is probably right. If there are 20,000 people in Black Horse Vale (which may be an overstatement - I think 10,000 may be more likely), and somewhere between 500 and 2500 riders, then just about everyone else is going to be involved in food production to some extent - even the foot soldiers.
I suspect the bulk of the population are Vendref peasants - since Ethilrist's valley was Grazelander prior to Ethilrist's conquest of the vale (which if I recall was in 1527-1545). I'm sure that they forcibly participate in whatever ceremonies Ethilrist insists on.
Jeff
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