Well, I'm not necessarily looking that the wacky events of MC be embedded wholesale in the timeline, just by way of an allowance for "space for Kultain tribe to rebel and be destroyed [here]". But for reference, the gist of it as follows:
Early Fire Season, about 5000 Tarshite troops gather in a staging area around the Duck Point area. [Nervous PCs take the deliberate disinformation that this is a raid on the Grazers -- one of them does some business supplying the troops! (This must be method acting... his previous PC was a Uroxi...)
Mid Fire Season, said troops are instead making their way south; a contingent of them reinforce a previously disused hillfort, at or near "Blacktree Shrine" on the LoT map. (Campaign started before LoT came out, so there's some back-translation going on here.) The revoltin' barbarian locals, still not clear what the lunars are up to, but nervous and disgruntedled, storm this by force, and also invest the Chormsford crossing (north of Roadend), as the most defensible point on the road south. (They're also emboldened to do so by a manifestation of Yavor that'd appeared semi-spontaneously at the ford, and indeed did so again at the ensuing battles.)
The Lunars assault the ford three times, finally taking it on Clay/Stasis/Fire IMG. Large numbers of the rebels flee south, fearing the precedent of what happened to the Dundealos the year before (and quite rightly, too).
Oh yes, and I had Jorkandros Blinder turn up for the third assault with his Yuthuppan contingent, though his forces didn't participate much. Dynamic group feedback in action, what a concept.
As I mentioned, I think the seaborne assault on Karse might have occurred a good deal earlier -- I just established that by the time the PCs reached WW, this had already happened.
Motivations for why the Lunars didn't make the incursion earlier I'm a little sketchy on. For me this was driven substantially by the consideration of the (canon) rebellion in this year, and surely Fire isn't just raiding season, but also rebellin'...
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