Bet it all, take him down before he gives you the death-of-a-thousand-cuts. The odds here are easy to calculate if you know all the numbers.
> and would changing to using magic
> (with a different, potentially larger, TN bonus, but no edge) increase or
> decrease my eventual chance of winning?
Compare the numbers, if you know them. I don't concur that it's difficult to tell what the optimal choice will be. I'd tend to go with what was most cool at the time and given the circumstances, but I'm not a number-cruncher (unlike many players I know)
Which leads me to...
In order to be somewhat provocative, I'll recount what a friend of mine had to say about HW mechanics. "If it's so obvious what strategy is optimal, in most situations, why is there such a complex game mechanic for conflict resolution?" :-)
Eric Hansen
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