> Let's say you reckoned that a PC getting into a serious contest has
> at least a 1 in 5 chance of ending up "dying" (across the many
> iterations of such contests). Seems like a fair enough ballpark
> figure to make contests a bit worrisome. Empirically, my suspicion
> is that it is more like 1 in 30, if that, but I've only my own
> experiences and some comments from Jane and Nic.
In a simple contest, 1 in 400 when both people have the same number of masteries. (1 in 20 of rolling a Fumble, 1 in 20 of rolling a Critical = 1 in 400 of both a Fumble and a Critical being rolled).
Uncancelled masteries change the odds significantly, *and* make the equation much more complex, as you now have to take into account the actual number rolled to see what happens to it when it gets bumped.
In an extended contests, the odds are impossible to calculate as it depends on the die roll (which can be calculated) *and* the bid (which depends on the player, and so can't really be calculated). If you want to drive your opponent to Dying, you need to bid big and roll well. If you piddle around with 3-5 point bids, you'll never get a Dying result. If you use 25-50 point bids...
RR
He was born with the gift of laughter and the sense that the world was mad
R. Sabatini, Scaramouche
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