> Totals
> Ties 14 or 3.5%
> Skill 10 wins 180 or 45.0%
> Skill 15 wins 205 or 51.3%
> Both lose 1 or .3%
> Skill 15 has an 6.3% edge over Skill 10.
This is correct but by breaking it down even further:
Skill 15 vs resistance of 10:
Complete Victory 1 = 0.3%
Major Victory 23 = 5.8% Minor Victory 139 = 34.8% Marginal Victory 42 = 10.5% Tie 15 = 3.8% (including the 20 vs 20 roll) Marginal defeat 107 = 26.8% Minor Defeat 59 = 14.8% Major Defeat 13 = 3.3%
so yes skill 15 has the better chance of winning but they also have a better chance of winning better.
The number I like to calculate is the ratio of wins to losses which gives the odds of winning. For skill 15 vs 10 that is 1.14. The relationship is non-linear so the rate of increase in the win ratio increases with each extra point:
skill 16 vs 10 = 1.21 skill 17 vs 10 = 1.29 skill 18 vs 10 = 1.40 skill 19 vs 10 = 1.53
The rate of increase falls again going past the mastery point
skill 1w vs 10 = 1.54 skill 2w vs 10 = 1.55 skill 3w vs 10 = 1.57 skill 4w vs 10 = 1.61 skill 5w vs 10 = 1.67 skill 6w vs 10 = 1.75 skill 7w vs 10 = 1.86 skill 8w vs 10 = 1.99 skill 9w vs 10 = 2.17 skill 10w vs 10 = 2.39 skill 11w vs 10 = 2.67 skill 12w vs 10 = 3.00 skill 13w vs 10 = 3.40 skill 14w vs 10 = 3.88 skill 15w vs 10 = 4.48 skill 16w vs 10 = 5.25 skill 17w vs 10 = 6.27 skill 18w vs 10 = 7.70
No only that but your quality of wins gets greater and the quality of losses gets less :-))
for skill 10w vs 10 the complete breakdown looks like this:
Complete Victory 19 = 4.8%
Major Victory 99 = 24.8% Minor Victory 164 = 41.0% Marginal Victory 0 = 0.0% Tie 0 = 0.0% Marginal defeat 99 = 24.8% Minor Defeat 18 = 4.5% Major Defeat 1 = 0.3%
Powered by hypermail